US Iran Conflict

Long-lasting Tension in the Middle-East and Hope for a durable piece

Rashid Hussain

             Since the Iranian Revolution 1979, Iran and US relations have remained strained, Iran has been struggling to become a nuclear state for a long time, Iran says it has the right to possess nuclear energy and weapons. In 1968, Iran signed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and agreed to place its nuclear program under IAEA – the International watchdog established to ensure peaceful use of Nuclear energy, In 2015, Iran Nuclear Deal was reached between Iran and P5+1 along with EU to curb Iranian Nuclear program which was abandoned by US President Donald Trump in Nov 2018, sanctions were reinstated, and the Iranian economy started to downturn.

The US-Iran relation began to get more tense after the US reimposed economic sanctions on Iran last year that provided Iran a reason to resume its uranium enrichment; besides, on April 8, 2019, US declared Iran’s “Revolutionary Guard Corps” a terrorist group and Alquds was put on a blacklist. Retaliatory actions were seen in May and Jun of 2019 when 6 oil tankers were damaged by rocket attacks in Gulf and Oman, no group claimed the responsibility but according to the US, it was Iran-backed militia that carried out all these attacks resulted in substantial damage to the ships. Iran also took down a drone flying over Iranian air space in Jun 2019, the action was retaliated by shooting down an Iranian drone and more intense sanctions were imposed on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders of Iran, their bank accounts were seized.

On 14 September 2019, two oil-processing facilities of Saudi government were attacked by using a drone, caused huge fire which was then extinguished, Iranian-backed Yemini Houthis claimed the responsibility; following the incident, the US, UK, France, and Germany stated that Iran was behind this attack, Saudi was careful, this time, to issue the statement promptly - peace initiatives were being taken by Pakistan to settle the dispute and ease the tension between the Arabs and Iran – later, the Saudi government was also on the same page with the US. Pakistan, under the leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan, having the understanding of sensitivity of the matter, decided to never let the situation escalate in the Middle East and started to hold meetings with top government leaders of both countries, effort was taken in this regard, were warmly welcomed and appreciated by Saudi and Iran.

In November 2019, due to surge in fuel price at international level, Iran also increased the fuel price by 200%; this decision made Iranian people enraged, thousands of protesters took to streets and started protest against the Iranian government, slogans for regime change, removal of the Islamic Republic of Iran and supreme leader Ali Khamenei were chanted, the protest spread to various cities of the country and turned violent, hundreds of public properties including hundreds of banks were torched, vehicles were burnt; the Iranian government then launched a nationwide crackdown against protesters, used live ammunition which caused more than 700 deaths and many injured. Videos and photos of the protest circulated on the internet, the US announced support for protesters; Iranian authorities shut down the internet facility all over the country, Pakistan was closely observing the deteriorating situation of Iran and the region, decided to play a constructive and vital role, General Qamar Javed Bajwa ( Chief of Army Staff Pakistan) visited Iran, met with military counterparts and Top Iranian government officials, discussed regional security situation and other issues of mutual interest; within some days, the protest came to an end after detention of thousands of outraged protestors.

In the last week of December 2019, the world saw a more serious escalation between the US and Iran. On 27 December, US defense contractor Iraqi born US citizen Nawres Hamid, aged 33, was killed along with members of US forces and Coalition forces in a rocket strike on a military base situated in Iraqi city Kirkuk, the incident prompted retaliatory action of the US military forces, missile strike was carried out against pro-Iran militia in Iraq, killing 25 group activists, but its reaction came only a day after the airstrike, dozens of protesters stormed to US Embassy in Baghdad, caused damage to the building, chanted anti-American slogans. The US president tweeted on 31 December, “Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will. Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the US Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible. Besides, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!”

demonstration in Iran over assassination of gen Qassem Suleimani 

Then the day came when on 3rd January 2020, a top general of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qassem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike when he, along with Abu Mehdi, the deputy chief of the pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Forces, being escorted by Iraqi para-military Forces, outside Iraqi International Airport, was proceeding to meet Iraqi government officials. Millions of Iranian people gathered at the event of his funeral and called for revenge, carried posters of "death to America".

In this heightened tension, the US President Donald Trump addressed right away “On my directions, US Military has successfully eliminated and killed no 1 terrorist Qassem Soleimani who was plotting killing more Americans”. The US holds Gen Soleimani responsible for the killing of thousands of people in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine through the proxy war using Al-Quds, Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

Iran vowed to revenge, the people of Iran and people belonging to Shia community all over the world, were shocked and reacted through protests against the US, demanding for retaliatory military action, millions of Iranian people took to streets in Iran, mourned unexpected assassination of Maj Gen Qassem Soleimani, meanwhile Iranian Supreme Commander Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced $80 million bounty for assassinating US President Donald Trump. On 8 January 2020, early in the morning, Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles on US Military Bases in Baghdad city of Iraq, resulted in several casualties, but some of the missiles hit miles away from the said target and some did not go off. Reportedly Iran had informed the Iraqi government before the attack and the same was conveyed to US authorities to avoid any casualties. The US, also initially denied any casualties and Donald Trump tweeted “All is well” perhaps Iran leaked the missile strike information because they wanted to prevent further escalation, in the meantime the strike would satisfy Iranian protesters as well. The tragic incident took place during the Iranian Missile attack at Military Bases in Iraq - housing US Forces and allies - a Ukrainian passenger aircraft carrying 176 travelers, shot down shortly after taking off from Tehran Airport. Initially, Iran denied then admitted that it was shot down mistakenly, the president of Iran Hassan Ruhani called it “human error”. According to the Iranian Military, the airplane was moving towards the sensitive location of IRGC that’s why it was struck down but this act was an unforgivable mistake that needs inquiry. Soon after the Iranian government acknowledged to unintentionally shoot down the plane, people took to streets in various cities protesting against the incident, demanding overthrow of the regime, removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; slogans were uttered “death to Khamenei, removal of Islamic Republic of Iran”, university students also took part in violent protests who were dealt with state force, tear gas, baton charge, and firing was carried out, thousands have been detained. The US again issues a statement of support of protesters and asked the Iranian government not to kill their citizens.

Reportedly a former CIA operative revealed the secret facts behind Ukrainian plane incident, as per his information, the unfortunate plane was hacked and destroyed by Israel when the plane took off from Tehran Airport, its operating system was hacked and controlled by Israel through satellite, Iranian radar system was shut off for a while, communication system of IRGS’s Aerospace Force was jammed, and the Pilot, in such situation, loses its control over the plane; it was a type of cyber-attack, he said. The Iranian government, after immense pressure from the world, has now decided to hand over the black box of the downed plane to Ukraine, which will be a positive step to diffuse confrontation, between the US and Iran.

It is high time for the United Nations, EU, OIC, and other concerned countries to take hasty, significant attempts to de-escalate the situation for the larger interest of the whole region of the Middle East and to ease the hostility between the US and Iran to avoid any war-like circumstances in the future.